Effects of Mitigation Options on the Control of Methane Emissions Caused by Rice Paddies and Livestock Populations to Reduce Global Warming: A Modeling Study and Comparison with Environmental Data

Abstract

In this paper, a non-linear mathematical model is proposed and analyzed to study the effects of mitigation options on the control of methane emissions in the atmosphere caused by rice paddies and livestock populations to reduce global warming. In the modeling process, it is assumed that the cumulative biomass density of rice paddies and the density of livestock populations follow logistic models with their respective growth rates and carrying capacities. The growth rate of concentration of methane in the atmosphere is assumed to be directly proportional to the cumulative density of various processes involved in the production of rice paddies as well as the cumulative density of various processes used in the farming of livestock populations. This growth rate is also assumed to increase with natural factors such as wetlands but it decreases with the cumulative density of mitigation options, considered to be proportional to the increased level of methane concentration in the atmosphere. The non-linear model is analyzed by using the stability theory of differential equations and computer simulation. The analysis shows that mitigation options can control the methane emissions in the atmosphere caused by rice paddies and livestock populations considerably. The computer simulation of the model confirms this analytical result. The data from model prediction is compared with actual methane data in the atmosphere and found to be very satisfactory.

Keywords: mathematical model, methane, rice paddies, livestock populations, mitigation strategies, stability analysis