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doi:10.3808/jei.202400522
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Projected Changes in Temperature and Precipitation over Canada in the 21st Century

Y. H. Wu1,2, C. Z. Huang3, W. W. Huang4 *, and X. J. Chen5

  1. Environmental Systems Engineering, University of Regina, Regina, Saskatchewan S4S 0A2, Canada
  2. The Institute for Energy, Environment and Sustainable Communities, University of Regina, Regina, Saskatchewan S4S 7H9, Canada
  3. Department of Chemical and Materials Engineering, University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alberta T6G 1H9, Canada
  4. Department of Civil Engineering, University of Calgary, Calgary, Alberta T2N 1N4, Canada
  5. Department of Civil Engineering, University of Texas at Arlington, Arlington, Texas 76019, USA

*Corresponding author. Tel.: +1-403-220-6234. E-mail address: wendy.huang3@ucalgary.ca (W. Huang).

Abstract


Climate change is one of the most urgent and challenging issues in Canada. In this study, high-resolution climate projections over Canada have been developed through the WRF model. The spatial and temporal variations of Canada’s temperature and precipitation in the 21st century have been comprehensively analyzed. It is found that the annual mean temperature over Canada is projected to increase by [1.53, 1.98], [2.51, 3.86], and [2.94, 6.19]°C in the 2030s, the 2050s, and the 2080s under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 respectively, with the largest increase in winter. The annual total precipitation is projected to increase by [16.33, 68.96], [64.80, 121.62], and [123.62, 184.33] mm in three future periods under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 respectively. It is also found that sea surface temperatures (SST) anomalies and 500 hPa geopotential height (GPH) have strong impacts on Canada’s annual and seasonal precipitations. The results can provide valuable information for mitigation and adaptation of climatic changes in a Canadian context.

Keywords: Climate change, temperature, precipitation, regional climate model, long-term projection, mechanism


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