Uncertainty Analysis for Distribution of Greenhouse Gases Concentration in Atmosphere

Abstract

Spatial distribution of greenhouse gases (GHGs) concentration in the atmosphere is important in determining the atmosphere’s radioactive absorbtion and global warming. Reducing uncertainties in understanding the spatial distribution of GHGs concentration in the atmosphere have particular meaning in climate modeling and projection of future climate scenarios. In this study, the vertical distribution of GHGs concentration in the atmosphere is deduced and the relevant uncertainty is analyzed by a fuzzy set method. This method was applied in a case study to examine the vertical distribution of CO2 concentration in the atmosphere. Results indicate that uncertainties in projection of GHGs emissions and global surface temperature have played important roles on vertical distribution of CO2 concentration in the atmosphere. This has particular meaning for study of relation between CO2 distribution and global warming.

Keywords: CO2, concentration, distribution, fuzzy set theory, greenhouse gases, uncertainty