A Process for Harmful Algal Bloom Location Prediction Using GIS and Trend Analysis for the Terrestrial Waters of Kuwait

Abstract

The State of Kuwait has a population of 2.5 million people, the vast majority of whom live along the southeastern stretch of its 500 km coastline. This makes the health of its coastal waters vital to the overall quality of life and economy of the country. Kuwait Bay, a shallow natural harbor situated at the eastern "mouth" of the country, lies year-round within the euphotic zone. It is exposed to many environmental stressors that originate from both point and non-point-sources. A combination of factors has led to a marked increase in harmful algal bloom (HAB) outbreaks over the past two decades. Even though they are ephemeral, these HABs have been massive and costly in environmental and economic terms. The objective of this study was to attempt to develop a process to identify potential HAB "hotspots" using GIS and trend analysis techniques, in an effort to isolate the areas that are most prone to a future HAB outbreak. ArcGIS and Crystal Ball software were used to process and analyze data provided by the Kuwait Environmental Public Authority. Data was projected over a one-year period and subsequently used to generate monthly rasters (digital images) that outlined any HAB "hotspots" present for the given month. The results showed that, although a broad snapshot of HAB-friendly conditions was produced for each month between May and October, no specificity could be applied in the context of a definite algal outbreak. Further research is needed for a more accurate process to be developed.

Keywords: dissolved oxygen, eutrophication, GIS, HAB, Map Algebra, trend analysis