Simulating the Impact of Climate Change on Rice Yield Using CERES-Rice Model

Abstract

Rice (Oryza sativa L.) is the second most important food grain after wheat in World. A decline in productivity of rice in recent years has been ascribed to decrease in soil organic carbon and reserve of nutrients, non-uniform distribution of rainfall, and increase in temperature because of climate change. To assess the impact of climate change on rice yield, crop simulation model CERES-rice was calibrated and well evaluated for medium and long duration varieties through field experimental data at Kharagpur, India. Using past 27 years (1974-2000) weather data, the CERES-Rice model predicted higher yield variability of the long duration (140 days) variety 'Swarna' as compared to the medium duration (120 days) verities (IR 36 and Lalat) under rainfed condition of Kharagpur, India. However the highest mean yield was simulated for the variety Swarna. With increase in atmospheric CO2 level by 100 ppm, the grain yield of rice was increased up to 6% under optimum supply of water and nutrients. Increase in average air temperature by 20ºC resulted a decline in yield of both the medium duration varieties but an increase in yield of the long duration variety. The long duration variety showed better adaptability to climate change than the medium duration varieties under optimum input management condition.

Keywords: adaptation, CERES-rice model, climate change, rice yield, simulation