Climate Change Impact Assessment and Evaluation of Agro-Adaptation Measures for Rice Producti on in Eastern India

Abstract

Climate change is expected to affect the global food production adversely. Rice, being a major food for more than half of the world population, its production management needs attention to mitigate the adverse effect of climate change and to ensure global food security. Crop simulation model CERES-Rice was used to simulate rice grain yield of two popular cultivars namely 'Lalat' (medium duration type,120d) and 'Swarna' (long duration type, 145d) for climate change scenarios and to evaluate agro-adaptations at three locations (Kharagpur, Dumdum and Purulia) in eastern India. Using historical weather data of the locations, the CERES-rice model simulated higher average grain yield of the cultivar 'Swarna' as compared to 'Lalat' under rainfed agro-ecosystem. Use of future climate change scenarios of the General Circulation Models (GCMs); Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Goddard Institute for Space Studies, and United Kingdom Meteorological Office predicted variable yield of these cultivars at all the locations. For a ll the GCMs, the crop model simulated lower yield reduction of long duration cultivar ‘Swarna’ as compared to the medium duration cultivar Lalat with current farming practice. The yield reduction was to the extent of 27% and 14% at Kharagpur and 17% and 7% at Puruli a for the cultivars Lalat and Swarna, respectively. An advanced planting time of 10 to 30 days from current farmers' planting time (15 July) is expected to mitigate the adverse effect of climate change on the rice yield. Cultivar selection and plating time adjustment could be suitably managed for better adaptation to minimize the risk of yield loss due to climate change.

Keywords: adaptation, CERES-rice model, climate change, rice yield, planting time