A Bayesian Method for Model Selection in Environmental Noise Prediction

Abstract

Environmental noise prediction and modeling are key factors for addressing a proper planning and management of urban sound environments. In this paper we propose a maximum a posteriori (MAP) method to compare nonlinear state-space models that describe the problem of predicting environmental sound levels. The numerical implementation of this method is based on particle filtering and we use a Markov chain Monte Carlo technique to improve the resampling step. In order to demonstrate the validity of the proposed approach for this particular problem, we have conducted a set of experiments where two prediction models are quantitatively compared using real noise measurement data collected in different urban areas.

Keywords: environmental noise level prediction, MAP model selection, Monte Carlo sampling, nonlinear state-space model, particle filtering