Improvement of Instantaneous Point Source Model for Simulating Radionuclide Diffusion under Climate Change

Abstract

Simulation methods have become an important tool to reveal radionuclide migration during accidental radionuclide releases and predict influences of accidents on the marine environment. The instantaneous point source model is a useful method to simulate the large-scale radionuclide diffusion in marine areas. However, the simulation accuracy of this method requires improvement as it didn’t take radionuclide decay into account. In this study, an improved instantaneous point source model considering radionuclide decay was proposed on the basis of the original model. Furthermore, the instantaneous point source model and the improved version were used to simulate the concentrations of 131I and 137Cs following the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant accident. The results showed that the relative error of 131I concentrations decreased from 136.03% to 37.59% when using the improved model; and improvements in relative errors for 137Cs concentrations were not apparent as the simualtion period was much shorter than its half-life period. Therefore, the improved model can accurately simulate the diffusion process for radionuclides following an accident and provides an efficient decision support tool for risk assessment managers and for use in safety guarantees of nuclear power plants during siting and operational phases.

Keywords: Instantaneous point source model; Improved instantaneous point source model; Radionuclide diffusion; Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant accident; Decay