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Spatial-Temporal Distribution of Disability-Adjusted Life-Years of Lung Cancer Attributable to Ambient PM2.5 in Guangzhou, China, 2010 ~ 2013: A Population-Based Study

X. Lin1, H. Dong2, G. Z. Lin2, Y. Li2, Q. Y. Yang2, Y. Liao3, A. Luo1, B. L. Liang1, Z. C. Yang2*, and Y. T. Hao1,4*

  1. Department of Medical Statistics and Epidemiology & Health Information Research Center & Guangdong Key Laboratory of Medicine, School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, 510080, Guangdong, China
  2. Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, 510440, Guangdong, China
  3. Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, 511430, Guangdong, China
  4. Sun Yat-sen Global Health Institute, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, 510080, Guangdong, China

*Corresponding author. Tel.: +020-3605-2333; fax: +020-3605-5856. E-mail address: (Z. C. Yang).
*Corresponding author. Tel.: +020-8733-1587; fax: +020-8733-1587. E-mail address: (Y. T. Hao).
Z. C. Yang and Y. T. Hao contributed equally to this work.
X. Lin and H. Dong contributed equally to this work.


The authors describe district-specific disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) of lung cancer attributable to ambient particulate matter < 2.5 um in diameter (PM2.5) for Guangzhou city in China, so as to help prioritizing environmental health action from geospatial perspective. Comparative risk assessment and satellite-derived PM2.5 concentrations were used to investigate the spatial-temporal distribution of DALY attributable to ambient PM2.5 for lung cancer. Integrated exposure-response model and kriging model were constructed based on estimated relative risk (RR) from risk assessment. Annual mean PM2.5 increased by 25.9% from 2010 (71.1 ug/m3) to 2013 (89.5 ug/m3). Estimated RRs ranged from 1.37 (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 1.04 ~ 1.86) to 1.99 (95% UI: 1.12 ~ 3.19) among the districts. For lung cancer, DALY attributable to PM2.5 increased by 26.8% from 2010 to 2013, reaching 43352.7 DALYs (95% UI: 8157.9 ~ 62371.7) in 2013. The paper showed that population residing in highly-polluted and aged districts might suffer a higher relative risk for developing lung cancer. Our validated analysis framework also showed that population suffered from a higher loss of lung cancer DALYs, partly due to the higher PM2.5 exposure in some subareas within the city. We reveal that ambient PM2.5 pollution contributed substantially to lung cancer burden, both locally and sub-locally. These results suggest the need for enhanced environmental health policies in the city.

Keywords: PM2.5, spatial analysis, disability-adjusted life-years, comparative risk assessment, lung cancer

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