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A Non-Deterministic Integrated Optimization Model with Risk Measure for Identifying Water Resources Management Strategy

S. Nie1, C. Z. Huang2 *, W. W. Huang3, and J. Liu4

  1. Department of Electrical & Computer Engineering, Faculty of Applied Science and Engineering, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON M5S 1A4, Canada
  2. Department of Chemical and Materials Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, University of Alberta, Edmonton, AB T6G 2R3, Canada
  3. Department of Civil Engineering, University of Calgary, Calgary, AB T6G 2R3, Canada
  4. Fujian Engineering and Research Center of Rural Sewage Treatment and Water Safety, School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Xiamen University of Technology, Xiamen 361024, China

*Corresponding author. Tel.: +1-778-858-0870. E-mail address: (C. Z. Huang).


Water resources system planning often exhibits high modeling error and uncertainty. Uncertainty in system parameters as well as their interrelationships can strengthen the conflict-laden issue of water allocation among competing interests. In this study, a non-deterministic integrated optimization model with risk measure is developed for planning water resources management. It can (i) deal with complex uncertainties described as probability distributions, fuzzy sets, and their combinations, (ii) provide an effective linkage between the predefined policies and the associated economic implications, and (iii) reflect policymakers’ preferences to the tradeoff between system benefit and economic loss. The developed model is then applied to planning water resources allocation of the Heshui River Basin (China), where 960 scenarios are analyzed under various uncertainty and risk measures. Results disclose that (i) not only uncertainties of fuzziness and randomness but also risk attitudes of decision makers have significant impacts on water-allocation scheme and system benefit; (ii) the selection of a suitable alternative among solutions under different α, μ and λ values is complicated; (iii) water shortage would occur when water availability is less than the promised target; (iv) agriculture would encounter most serious scarcity compared to municipal and industry; (v) the conflict between economic development and agricultural sustainability would be a challenged issue that would enforce the local authority to adjust water-allocation policy. The findings can provide superior fundamental understanding of the study basin to improve water-allocation decisions under complex uncertain condition.

Keywords: conditional value-at-risk, integrated optimization, non-deterministic, scenario analysis, water resources

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