Operational Optimization of Solar CCHP Systems for Climate-change Adaptation under Multiple Uncertainties

Abstract

The solar CCHP system faces various uncertainties related to user energy demand, equipment energy output, and system energy provision, which are influenced by multiple factors. These uncertainties disrupt the balance between energy supply and demand and are exacerbated by climate change. Therefore, estimating extreme levels of user demand and assessing the performance of energy supply equipment under multiple uncertainties is critical to designing an appropriate energy supply scheme for solar CCHP system. This article innovatively integrates regional climate simulation, user demand prediction, equipment simulation, uncertainty identification and characterization, and operation optimization into a comprehensive framework, resulting in a combined uncertain operation optimization model for solar CCHP systems under climate change. Compared with conventional operation optimization models, the proposed model not only addresses oversimplification in traditional user demand prediction and equipment output simulation but also avoids the potential pitfalls of excessive reliance on subjective judgment while characterizing uncertain variables. The operation strategy generated by this model highlights the paradoxical relationship between system economic performance and energy supply reliability, emphasizing the significance of establishing and solving this dynamic and integrated optimization model under multiple uncertainties. In the context of global warming, this optimal energy distribution strategy effectively prevents cooling energy shortage in summer and heating energy oversupply in winter during extreme weather conditions. This proposed combined approach provides valuable insight and guidance for configuring and operating integrated energy systems in other regions worldwide.

Keywords: climate change adaptation, energy demand prediction, mechanism simulation, uncertainty identification and characterization, synergic optimization, solar CCHP system