Mapping the Invisible Lines: Age-Specific Carbon Geographies in China’s Rapidly Aging Landscape

Abstract

Population aging is reshaping the structure and distribution of household carbon footprints, presenting new sustainability challenges. We clarify the mechanisms through which aging impacts carbon footprint formation at individual, household, and societal levels. We use a multi-regional input-output (MRIO) model, household survey data, and Gini coefficient decomposition to conduct our analysis. This approach allows us to systematically examine the age-related evolution, provincial heterogeneity, and urban-rural disparities of household carbon footprints in China. We also forecast future changes in these footprints and assess the associated inequality. Our results show that: (1) The carbon footprint of households of older adults (60+) follows a “low base, high growth” trend, increasing by 139.6% from 2012 to 2017 — the fastest of any age group — and is projected to make this cohort the second-largest emitter by 2030. (2) This age-related heterogeneity is driven by four mechanisms: life-cycle effects, household expenditure structure, income elasticity, and intergenerational stratification. (3) Urban households of older adults have higher total footprints and faster per capita growth than their rural counterparts, indicating a more pronounced aging impact in urban areas. (4) The impact of aging on carbon inequality follows an inverted U-shaped curve with regional variations. Aging exacerbates inequality in industrial and resource-based provinces, driven by high-carbon subsistence consumption and youth out-migration. Conversely, it reduces inequality in developed coastal regions through technological substitution and pension-supported green consumption. We elucidate the complex relationship between aging and carbon footprints, advancing climate justice research. It also provides targeted policy recommendations for aligning climate goals with social equity.

Keywords: population aging, household carbon footprint, carbon inequality, multi-regional input-output model, urban-rural disparity, intergenerational stratification, sustainable consumption